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GEO-SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF ELECTORAL POLLING UNITS IN KAURA LGA, KADUNA STATE, NIGERIA
AUTHORS: BATURE, GABRIEL MUGU1, BARNABAS ABOSHIO2 AND MADAKI, ALBERT3
CONFLUENCE JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES VOL. 18 (ISSUE 3),2024
www.confluencejournal.com ISSN: 1597-5827
Kaduna State College of Education, Gidan Waya, Nigeria
abmugu@yahoo.com
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ABSTRACT
polling units are located is one of the many important means to achieve this. This research aimed to map and analyse the distribution of electoral polling units in Kaura LGA, Kaduna State, Nigeria, applying Geo-Spatial Technique. The procedure entailed the acquisition of a base map showing the extent of Kaura LGA, capturing the various polling units with the aid of a Garmen 10 etrex handheld GPS receiver, collecting attribute data of the polling units within the study area from the Independent National Electoral Commission office in Kaura and creation of a spatial database of the existing polling units and demonstrating through various analyses the potential of GIS in measuring accessibility to polling units in Kaura LGA. The analyses undertaken include spatial distribution and buffering analyses to determine the service area of the polling units using QGIS 2.18 software. The study identified and mapped a total of 186 polling units and 10 political wards in the study area. The coordinates of each polling unit was captured. An overlay analysis was performed and all the acquired coordinates of the polling units were displayed on the composite map. Finally, a GIS database was created where the spatial and attribute data were encoded and query analysis was performed. The study revealed that Zankan ward (12.90%) and Bondong ward (12.37%) had majority of the polling units out of the 10 political wards in the study area. The wards with the least polling units were discovered to be Agban ward (7.53%) and Kadarko ward (6.99%). The study also showed a nearest neighbour index of 0.3314, indicating significant clustering of the polling units. The Z-score of -7.275127 indicated an extremely significant deviation from the mean, likely indicating strong clustering of polling units in the study area. Overall, these results suggest that the points in the dataset are significantly clustered together, as evidenced by the low nearest neighbour index and the highly negative Z-score. It is hereby recommended that there is need to create more electoral poling units in settlements that area farther away to ensure that eligible voters in such settlements are not disenfranchised.
- INTRODUCTION
An election is a formal decision making process by which a population chooses an individual or multiple individuals to hold public offices (Wikipedia 2013). The availability of adequate electoral polling units is an essential determinant in ensuring a free, fair and credible election in any nation. The Electoral Act (2010) (as amended) defines a Polling Unit (PU) as “the place, enclosure, booth, shade or house at which voting takes place under this Act” (Section 156-interpretation). Similarly, the National States Geographic Information Council (NSGIC, 2021) sees an electoral polling unit as a designated location where registered voters cast their votes on Election Day. Polling Units (PUs) constitute the basic structure of Nigeria’s electoral system and democracy. The location of an electoral polling unit is very important in determining eligible voter’s access to them (INEC, 2021).
Electoral polling units are important structures of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and are places that are isolated or created with the sole aim of servicing the registered voters and also serve as places where new voters are registered (Abubakar and Alhassan, 2017). They are the nerve centres at which voters make contact with the Commission during elections. As such, it is exceedingly important that polling units are not only ready and conducive to receive voters, but that they
are also well-organized and secure for the beehive of activities that occur in them on the day of election as they are the most critical points in delivering qualitative elections.
The INEC is the sole independent and non-partisan body saddled with the responsibility of all electoral processes in Nigeria since the return of democratic governance in 1999 (INEC 2007). INEC in 1996 created the present Nigeria electoral structure of 8,809 electoral wards with a total of 119,973 electoral polling units (Olokor 2014 and Abati 2021). However, according to INEC (2023), Nigeria recorded a total of 93,469,008 registered voters in the 2023 general elections as against 84,004,084 registered voters during the 2019 general elections (INEC 2019). Over the years, several challenges have confronted INEC with polling units. First, there is the problem of inadequate number of polling units available to voters. As a result of population growth, demographic shifts and establishment of new settlements and residential areas, existing polling units have become inadequate. Since the law ties registration of voters and voting to specific polling units, it means that voters have to walk long distances on Election Day to vote. Often, they are not able to do so because of restrictions on movement (INEC, 2021).
Also, the electoral process was based on traditional approach (manual method) which led to multiple registration of voters and irregular locations of polling units, where polling units are located in private residences of individuals who are well connected, high government officials or traditional rulers palace (Omoleke and Maduekwe 2017). This grant the owners of such premises unassigned powers of control over the voting process. Thus, creating a general climate of fear, opaqueness, insecurity and manipulation during the election process (Abati, 2021). This situation is not different in Kaura Local Government Area (LGA), where as a result of population growth and urbanization, existing polling units increasingly become inadequate to guarantee sufficient access to voters. The present ecosystem of polling units in Kaura LGA has been conducive to overcrowding during elections, which is a recipe for delays, disruptions, violence and apathy. In addition, some Polling Units are located in inaccessible locations, some in the homes of persons with political leanings and others in areas of communal conflicts. Many of them are in the open, with little cover, thus exposing voters, election staff and election materials to the elements. This situation has adverse effects on the overall conduct of elections. The problem of voter access to Polling Units has far reaching implications for the quality of elections and democracy in Kaura LGA.
The introduction of technology especially the use of Geospatial technology for election management will eliminate the challenges that have confronted INEC from conducting free, fair and credible elections (Nwanegho 2015). Geo-spatial technology allows users to collate and analyse information for more readily and quickly than the traditional technique (Herbert, Lateef, Salami and Morakinyo 2021). Geographic Information System (GIS) has found increasing application in public decision making (Idoko, Akpan, Aguim and Faseha 2016). Establishing a direct relationship between information and their geographical location is a unique characteristic of GIS, a versatile tool that also enables information to be displayed as maps. As a decision-support tool, GIS helps to integrate several data sets, and unravel complex relationships between phenomena within an ordered spatial framework (Akinyemi, 2001). With Geographical Information System (GIS), there are a number of possibilities to improve the electoral process.
- THE STUDY AREA
Kaura Local Government Area lies between latitudes 9˚ 30' N and 9˚ 45' N and longitudes 8˚ 20' E and 8˚ 35' E. Kaura Local Government Area has an estimated landmass of 485 km². This land area is bounded to the south by Jama’a L.G.A., Zango Kataf L.G.A. to the north, Kauru L.G.A. to the northeast, and to the east by Riyom L.G.A. in Plateau State. The Local Government Area is subdivided into ten wards for administrative purpose. These are Agban, kukum, Fada, Kpak, Mallagum, Kadarko, Kaura, Manchock, Bondong aand Zankan wards. See Figure 1
Figure 1: Kaura Local Government Area
Source: Modified from Administrative Map of Kaura LGA
- MATERIALS AND METHOD
3.1 Data Types and Sources
The following data were required for this study:
Administrative Map of Kaura LGA was sourced from Kaduna Geographic Information Service (KADGIS) and was used to delineate the political wards. Attribute data of the polling units within the study area (names, ID and their description of location) was collected from the Independent National Electoral Commission office in Kaura, Kaura LGA of Kaduna State, Nigeria.
3.2 Data Collection Procedures
Spatial data capturing of electoral polling units was done with the aid of handheld GPS receiver to get the locations of the various polling units. These data were used for the polling unit Mapping and Analysis.
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The shapefile of administrative boundary map of the study area was imported into QGIS 2.18 software. The map was then converted to Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection system with World Geodetic System (WGS) 84, 32N Minna datum, for easy distance measurement. Onscreen digitization was done with features such as roads, river, and rail-track in the study area were digitized as line features.
3.3 Techniques of Data Analysis
A combination of descriptive and overlay analysis was employed in the analysis of the data. The descriptive statistics such as appropriate maps, line graphs, bar graphs, and tables were employed to illustrate the distribution of the electoral polling units in the study area.
To identify and map the electoral polling units and to examine the spatial distribution of the electoral polling units in the study area, attribute data of the polling units within the study area sourced from the Independent National Electoral Commission office Kaura LGA were used to identify their various locations. Geographic coordinates of the electoral polling units was copied in Microsoft excel and saved as CSV (comma delimited) format which is recognizable and acceptable to the QGIS 2.18 software. The data was then imported into QGIS 2.18 software using the add XY, Command at the tools menu. This overlaid the points (coordinates) on the geo-referenced map of the study area. Nearest Neighbour Analysis was applied in archiving the pattern of distribution of those facilities.
- RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
4.1 The Spatial Distribution of Polling Units in the Study Area
The research findings revealed that Kaura LGA encompasses 10 electoral wards with a total of 186 electoral polling units, strategically situated at various locations within the study area. These polling units were distributed, ensuring that voters have reasonable access to electoral services on election days. The total registered electorates in each ward were also detailed in Table 1 while a geo-database which provides the addresses, northing and easting coordinates, as well as the corresponding ward names is presented on Appendix1. From the geo-database, locations of the polling units were displayed on the map to show their exact locations around study area. From the findings Zankan ward boasts the highest concentration of registered voters at 12.2%, reflecting its significant share of polling units at 12.90%. This was closely followed by Bondon ward with 12.37%, and 11.83% were found in Manchok ward with a total of 12.3% and 10.9% of the registered voters respectively. Similarly, Mallagum ward, representing 9.3% of registered voters, hosts approximately 9.13% of the polling units. Fada and Kaura wards, each comprising around 10.8% and 11% of registered voters respectively, exhibit a corresponding allocation of 11.29% of polling units. It was revealed that Kadarko ward had the least with regards to the distribution of polling units with 6.99% indicating a lesser proportion of registered voters compared to other wards.
Table 1: Electoral Wards and Polling Unit’s Composition in the Study Area
| Wards | Polling Units | Registered Voters | Ratio of PU to Pop. | |||
| Frequency | Percentage (%) | Frequency | Percentage (%) | |||
| 1 | AGBAN | 14 | 7.53 | 9091 | 9 | 1:649 |
| 2 | BONDON | 23 | 12.37 | 12460 | 12.3 | 1:542 |
| 3 | FADA | 21 | 11.29 | 10908 | 10.8 | 1:519 |
| 4 | KADARKO | 13 | 6.99 | 7057 | 7 | 1:543 |
| 5 | KAURA | 21 | 11.29 | 11242 | 11 | 1:535 |
| 6 | KPAK | 16 | 8.60 | 9012 | 9 | 1:563 |
| 7 | KUKUM | 15 | 8.07 | 8581 | 8.5 | 1:572 |
| 8 | MALLAGUM | 17 | 9.13 | 9425 | 9.3 | 1:554 |
| 9 | MANCHOK | 22 | 11.38 | 11050 | 10.9 | 1:502 |
| 10 | ZANKAN | 24 | 12.90 | 12315 | 12.2 | 1:513 |
| Total | 10 | 186 | 100% | 101141 | 100% | 1:544 |
Source: Author’s Compilation, 2023
Table 1 shows the ratio of the polling units (PU) in each ward to the population. The analysis reveals that Agban ward had the worst situation with polling unit-to-population ratio of 1:649. However, Manchok ward was found to have the least ratio of 1:502. This distribution pattern suggests a proportional allocation of polling units based on the population demographics of each ward within the study area. These results clearly reveal that the polling units are not equitably distributed among the 10 wards in the study area. The distribution of the polling units is lopsided and population was not considered in their location. The implication of such distribution is some areas would be underserved which can result in limited voter access to polling units, crowded and congested voting facilities, and susceptibility of the voting process to manipulation. Figure 2 shows the spatial distribution of the Polling Units in the Study Area
Figure 3: Spatial Distribution of polling units in Kaura LGA
4.2 Distribution Pattern of Electoral Polling Units in Kaura LGA
The result reveals that the distribution pattern of the electoral polling units in the study area is clustered with Nearest Neighbour Ratio of less than 1(nearest neighbour index: 0.72. Also, the Z-score which measures how many standard deviations an element is from the mean, indicating how much the observed pattern deviates from random distribution was -7.275. This indicates an extremely significant deviation from the mean, likely indicating strong clustering. This is likely influenced by geographical constraints such as valleys and mountains, which have compelled the consolidation of polling units in areas deemed suitable for accessibility and logistical efficiency.
AVERAGE NEAREST NEIGHBOR SUMMARY
| Nearest Neighbour Ratio: | 0.721161 | |
| z-score: | -7.275127 | |
| p-value: | 0.000000 |
Given the z-score of -7.27512681466, there is less than 1% likelihood that this clustered pattern could be the result of random chance.
Figure 3: Distribution Pattern of Electoral Polling Units
Figure 4 is the map of the existing and proposed polling units in Kaura LGA. The new polling units were proposed base on a maximum of 1500 metres trekking distance whereby 7 new polling units were proposed in the study area to adequately service the electorates during the election process. The statistics of the new and old polling units are presented in table 2
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Figure 4: Map of the Existing and proposed Polling Units in Kaura LGA.
Table 2: Proposed Polling Units Composition in the Study Area
| Wards | Existing Polling Units | Proposed Polling Units | |||
| Frequency | Percentage (%) | Frequency | Percentage (%) | ||
| 1 | AGBAN | 14 | 7.53 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | BONDON | 23 | 12.37 | 1 | 14.3 |
| 3 | FADA | 21 | 11.29 | 1 | 14.3 |
| 4 | KADARKO | 13 | 6.99 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | KAURA | 21 | 11.29 | 2 | 28.6 |
| 6 | KPAK | 16 | 8.60 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | KUKUM | 15 | 8.07 | 1 | 14.3 |
| 8 | MALLAGUM | 17 | 9.13 | 1 | 14.3 |
| 9 | MANCHOK | 22 | 11.38 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | ZANKAN | 24 | 12.90 | 1 | 14.3 |
| Total | 10 | 186 | 100% | 7 | 100% |
Source: Author’s Compilation, 2023
The study revealed that out of the 7 new polling units proposed Kaura ward had about 28.6% while Bondong, Fada, Kukum, Mallagum and Zankan wards all had 14.3% each. Creation of new polling units in these areas will imply that more eligible voters will have less distance to trek in order to cast their votes which will in turn encourage more voters to turn out on elections days.
- CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
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This research on mapping and analyses of the spatial distribution of polling units in Kaura Local Government Area of Kaduna State has provided information on the location of existing polling units in Kaura Local Government Area of Kaduna State. The proportion of registered voters in the polling units ranged between 502-649 voters in the study area. The pattern of distribution of the existing polling units was found to be clustered which is likely influenced by geographical constraints such as valleys and mountains, which have compelled the concentration of polling units in areas deemed suitable for accessibility and logistical efficiency. This suggests that voters had to trek a long distance in order to get to their voting units on election days. Therefore, the research utilizing a fixed distance buffer analysis revealed the proximity of prospective electorates to the existing polling units in terms of trekking distance of 1.5km whereby new polling units were proposed that can cater for the electorates in Kaura Local Government Area of Kaduna State in such a way that they don’t have to trek for long distances to reach their polling units on election days. A total number of 7 new polling units were proposed base on the research.
It is hereby recommended that there is need to create more electoral poling units in settlements that area farther away to ensure that eligible voters in such settlements are not disenfranchised. It is also recommended that a similar study should be carried out in other places to cover the entire Kaduna state for an optimum delivery of voting during the election days.
REFERENCE
Abubakar T. and Alhassan, I. (2017) Mapping and evaluation of polling units for optimum election process in Damaturu Metropolis, Yobe State, Nigeria. American Scientific Research Journal forEngineering, Technology and Sciences (ASRJETS) ISSN 2313-4410
Herbert T., Lateff L.O., Salami A.O. and Morakinyo A.D. (2021) Mapping and spatial analysis of polling units to enhance voting inAkure South, Nigeria. Quatum Journal of Social Science and Humanities, 2(3) 31-42.
Idoko K.E., Akpan S.G., Aguim E.C. and Faseha O.M. (2016). Application of geographic information system (GIS) technique in mapping election polling units: A case study of Ihitte Uboma LGA, Imo State, Nigeria. International Journal of Engineering, Business and Enterprise Application (IJEBEA)17(1):23-31
Independent National Electoral Commision (INEC) (2007). Function of Independent National Electoral Commission. https://www.ec.or.ug
INEC (2019). Number of wards, polling units and total registered voters for 2019 elections
INEC (2021). The state of voters access to polling units in Nigeria. Discussion paper N0.1/2021
Nwanegho J.C. (2015). Electoral process and micro level rigging in 2015 general election in Anambra West and Awka North LGA of Anambra State. Paper submitted to the two days national conference on the 2015 general elections in Nigeria: the real issues, June 17-18, 2015, The Electoral Institute, Independent National Electoral Commission
National States Geographic Information Council (NSGC, 2021). Best practices for geo-enabling elections project, GIS in elections. https://elections.nsgic.org/action
Olokor F. (2014). INEC suspends plan to create 30,000 new polling units. Premium Times, November 11, 2014.
Omolleke M.E. and Maduekwe N.F. (2017). The use of geo-spatial technology for managing elections in Nigeria: Issues and challenges. International Journal of Innovation and Researche in Educational Sciences. Volume 4, Issue 4, 2349-5219
Reuben, A. (2021). INEC polling units and the future of elections in Nigeria: premium times journal publication, June 2021
Wikipedia (2013). Elections-Wikipedia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/election
APPENDIX I
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